Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash
You’ve probably heard some chatter about the economy lately, maybe even some whispers about a possible recession. And let’s be real, that kind of talk tends to make people nervous about the housing market. But here’s the good news—there’s no need to panic. The housing market isn’t about to crash. Let me explain why. Real estate journalist Michele Lerner defines a housing market crash as when “home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.” With that in mind, here are two key reasons why a crash just isn’t in the cards right now. 1. Demand for Homes Is Higher Than Supply One of the biggest reasons behind the 2008 housing crash was an oversupply of homes. There were just too many houses and not enough buyers. Well, today’s market is the complete opposite of that. Generally speaking, a balanced housing market has about a six-month supply of homes. That means there’s enough inventory to meet demand without prices falling or spiking. Now, let’s take a look at where we stand today, thanks to some data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). In the lead-up to the 2008 crisis, there was a whopping 13-month supply of homes—far too much. Today, though, we’re looking at just 4.2 months of supply. That’s well below what’s considered balanced, which means demand is outpacing supply big time. When there are more buyers than there are homes available, prices tend to stay stable or even increase—not crash. Now, to be fair, inventory levels can vary depending on the market. Some areas might be more balanced, while others could have a slight oversupply, which could affect local prices. But nationally, the housing market is dealing with a shortage of homes. That’s a huge difference compared to 2008. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, puts it:"We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely." Want more insights on Baltimore specifically? Check out my post on Is Now the Right Time to Buy a Home in Baltimore?. 2. Unemployment Is Still Low Another key factor that drove the 2008 crash was unemployment. As people lost their jobs, they couldn’t make mortgage payments, which led to a wave of foreclosures. That, in turn, put more homes on the market, causing prices to plummet. But today’s employment picture looks a lot different. Here’s a quick look at where unemployment stands right now compared to the 2008 crisis and the long-term average: Back in 2008, unemployment was sky-high at 8.3%. The 75-year average is around 5.7%. And today? We’re sitting at just 4.1%. More people are working, which means more people can make their mortgage payments. That’s a big reason why we’re not seeing a wave of foreclosures like we did back then. In fact, with so many people still working, we’re seeing plenty of demand for homes, which helps keep prices up. To get more context on how employment and housing market trends are playing out in Baltimore, you might want to check out Top 5 Things to Know About the Baltimore Housing Market. Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger Than in 2008 It’s totally natural to feel uneasy with all the talk about a recession and economic uncertainty. But the housing market today is nowhere near where it was in 2008. As Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, says:"Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis." So, what does that mean for you? Simply put: Demand for homes is still high, supply is low, and people are working. These key factors are going to keep the housing market stable, preventing a repeat of the 2008 crash. Bottom Line Look, the housing market today is in a much better place than it was in 2008. But remember, real estate is local. So, if you have any questions about how these national trends are impacting our Baltimore market, feel free to reach out. I’m here to help you navigate it all and make the best decisions for your situation. If you want to dive deeper, check out my post on Why Baltimore Is Still a Hot Real Estate Market in 2024.
Now’s the Time To Upgrade to Your Dream Home In Baltimore
If you’ve been dreaming about upgrading to a bigger or nicer home, you’re not alone. Many Baltimore homeowners are feeling the same way. In fact, according to a recent survey, the top motivator for today’s homebuyers is the desire for more space or an upgraded home. But if you’ve been holding off on making that move due to concerns about the market, you might want to think again—now’s actually the perfect time to act. Why Now Is the Best Time to Upgrade Your Home With interest rates fluctuating and housing costs top of mind, it’s easy to see why many are waiting for the "right" moment to upgrade. But here’s the deal: several key factors are aligning to make now the ideal time to trade up. Let’s dive into why this is especially true for Baltimore homeowners. 1. You Have a Lot of Equity To Leverage One of the most significant advantages in today’s market is the amount of equity many homeowners have built up. Thanks to rising home prices, most Baltimore homeowners are sitting on a substantial amount of equity. According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic: “Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners, who now average about $315,000 in equity.” This means if you’ve been in your home for several years, you're likely in a great position to put that equity to good use. The funds from selling your current home could go toward the down payment on your new dream home. This would help keep your mortgage loan smaller, making the move more affordable than you might have thought. Curious how much equity you've built up? I can help you with a professional equity assessment. Contact me today to learn how much leverage you really have! If you’re thinking about selling your home, check out this helpful guide: Selling Your Home in Baltimore: What You Need to Know. 2. Mortgage Rates Are Falling, Boosting Your Purchasing Power Another reason why now is the right time to upgrade is that mortgage rates have recently been trending down. This is great news for buyers because lower rates mean more purchasing power. Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors, explains: “When mortgage rates fall, the interest portion of monthly payments decreases, which lowers the total payment. This makes it easier for more borrowers to qualify for mortgages that may have been unaffordable at higher rates.” In other words, if you were worried about the affordability of upgrading your home, lower mortgage rates can help make those monthly payments much more manageable. You might even find that the home you thought was out of reach is suddenly within your budget. You can also explore other prime opportunities in the local market by reading Why Now’s a Great Time to Buy in Baltimore. 3. The Baltimore Market Has Plenty of Opportunity Here in Baltimore, there’s no shortage of fantastic neighborhoods and properties to choose from. Whether you’re looking for more space in the suburbs like Catonsville or Ellicott City, or you want to upgrade to a modern, spacious home in a popular area like Federal Hill or Canton, there’s something for everyone. Upgrading your home doesn’t have to mean leaving the city. Baltimore’s real estate market has plenty of hidden gems just waiting to be found. For an overview of some great areas, take a look at our Baltimore Neighborhood Guide. And with rates down and equity up, it’s a prime time to make your move. What’s Next? Let’s Connect and Make It Happen! If you’re ready to sell your current home and find the bigger, nicer home you’ve been dreaming of, don’t wait any longer. Your equity, paired with today’s lower mortgage rates, puts you in a great position to upgrade. The Baltimore real estate market is full of opportunities, and with the right expert on your side, you can make the best move possible. Get in touch with me today to learn more about how we can make your dream home a reality. For more insights on the housing market, check out CoreLogic's Real Estate Market Insights.
Baltimore Real Estate: Normalization and Future Prices
Image Source: unsplash Baltimore's real estate market has experienced significant changes recently. The city saw an 11.02% appreciation rate over the last year, making it a hotspot for investors. Understanding Baltimore real estate market normalization and future price trends is crucial for making informed decisions. This blog aims to provide valuable insights and predictions to help navigate the evolving landscape. Current State of Baltimore Real Estate Image Source: unsplash Market Overview Recent Trends Baltimore's real estate market has shown remarkable resilience and growth. Over the past year, home prices in Baltimore appreciated by 8.8%. This significant appreciation rate has attracted many investors. The city experienced a 4.3% increase in median sale prices in June 2024 compared to the previous year. Despite a slowing market, housing prices in Maryland continue to rise about 2.5% per quarter. Key Statistics Median Sale Price: $205,000 in Baltimore City. Home Value Increase: 8.8% rise over the past year. Median Income: $83,811. Average House Price: $240,000 last month, showing a 4.3% increase. Factors Influencing the Market Economic Indicators Economic indicators play a crucial role in shaping Baltimore's real estate market. High mortgage rates have influenced buyer demand. The city's economic growth has contributed to rising home prices. Analysts project positive earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. This indicates overall market growth, which can impact real estate prices. Demographic Changes Demographic changes also affect the market. Baltimore's population dynamics have shifted, influencing housing demand. The city remains an affordable metro area, attracting new residents. The low cost of living makes Baltimore an attractive option for potential residents. Housing affordability remains a concern, with prices continuing to climb. Comparison with Other Cities Regional Trends Baltimore's real estate market stands out compared to other cities in Maryland. The city has seen over 50% more appreciation than other towns and cities in the state. Homes in Baltimore sold for 2.4% more than a year ago. The city is a seller's market with higher prices and faster sales. National Trends On a national level, Baltimore's home prices have appreciated by double digits since 2014. The city offers affordable real estate prices compared to major US cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York. Rent growth in Baltimore is significant, with low housing inventory relative to demand. Despite the housing market slowdown, experts believe prices will continue to climb in the near future. Baltimore Real Estate Market Normalization Definition and Importance What is Market Normalization? Market normalization refers to the process where real estate prices and trends stabilize after periods of rapid change. This stabilization often follows significant fluctuations in home prices, sales volumes, and inventory levels. The Baltimore real estate market normalization aims to achieve a balanced state, reducing extreme volatility. Why It Matters Understanding Baltimore real estate market normalization is crucial for buyers, sellers, and investors. A normalized market provides predictability, making it easier to make informed decisions. Stability in the market reduces risks associated with sudden price drops or spikes. This predictability benefits long-term planning and investment strategies. Historical Context Past Market Volatility The Baltimore real estate market has experienced periods of significant volatility. Rapid price increases and decreases have characterized the market over the past decades. Economic downturns and booms have influenced these fluctuations. The 2008 financial crisis serves as a notable example of such volatility. Lessons Learned Past market volatility offers valuable lessons. Investors and homeowners must understand the importance of market cycles. Recognizing the signs of an overheating market can prevent poor investment decisions. The Baltimore real estate market normalization helps mitigate risks associated with extreme market conditions. Indicators of Normalization Price Stability Price stability is a key indicator of Baltimore real estate market normalization. Stable prices suggest that the market has reached a balanced state. This stability benefits both buyers and sellers by providing a predictable environment. Consistent price trends reduce the likelihood of sudden market shifts. Inventory Levels Inventory levels also indicate Baltimore real estate market normalization. A balanced inventory means that the supply of homes matches buyer demand. High inventory levels can lead to price reductions, while low levels can drive prices up. Achieving a balanced inventory ensures a healthy market dynamic. Future Price Predictions Image Source: unsplash Expert Opinions Real Estate Analysts Real estate analysts foresee a 1.7% rise in home values for 2024. This bullish market outlook in Baltimore suggests a promising future for investors and buyers. Specialists recommend making well-researched choices to thrive in this dynamic environment. Expert advice can guide potential stakeholders through the complexities of the market. This is slightly off from what most experts were predicting earlier this year. "Experts predict a moderate increase of 1.7% in the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA market over the next year." — Real Estate Analysts Economic Forecasts Economic forecasts highlight several factors contributing to improved market conditions. The high number of available jobs plays a significant role. Steady property appreciation due to low inventory also supports the market. A large student population further boosts demand for housing. "Many factors are responsible for these improved market conditions, including the high number of jobs available, steady property appreciation due to low inventory, and a large student market." — Economic Forecasts Influencing Factors Economic Growth Economic growth significantly impacts future real estate prices in Baltimore. A robust economy attracts more residents and businesses. This increased demand drives up property values. Job creation and rising incomes further enhance the market's attractiveness. Policy Changes Policy changes can also influence real estate prices. Government initiatives to improve housing affordability may affect market dynamics. Tax incentives for homebuyers could stimulate demand. Conversely, stricter lending regulations might slow down the market. Potential Scenarios Optimistic Outlook An optimistic outlook envisions continued economic growth and stable market conditions. Home values could rise steadily, benefiting both buyers and sellers. Increased job opportunities and higher incomes would support this positive trend. Investors could expect healthy returns on their investments. Pessimistic Outlook A pessimistic outlook considers potential economic downturns or unfavorable policy changes. Reduced buyer demand could lead to slower price growth or even declines. High mortgage rates might deter potential buyers. Investors would need to exercise caution and adapt to changing market conditions. In conclusion, understanding future price predictions requires careful consideration of expert opinions and influencing factors. Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios offer valuable insights for making informed decisions in Baltimore's real estate market. Baltimore's real estate market has shown resilience and growth. The city experienced a higher than anticipated appreciation rate over the last year. The market is normalizing, providing stability and predictability. Experts predict a 1.7% rise in home values for 2024. Investors should focus on well-researched choices. High mortgage rates and demographic changes influence the market. Real estate experts recommend consulting professionals for informed decisions. Potential buyers should consider Baltimore's affordability and economic growth. The city's low cost of living attracts new residents. Investing in Baltimore real estate offers promising opportunities.
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